Saskatchewan Roughriders 2008 CFL Preview 
By CFL Expert Ron Raymond of Phoenixsports
Date: Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Talk about a turn of events after winning the Grey Cup! You lose the CFL Coach of the Year in Kent Austin to his ALMA matter (Ole Miss – New Offensive Coordinator) and then you lose your starting QB Kerry Joseph to the Toronto Argonauts. Well, like the old saying goes, you don’t rebuild, you reload! However, it’s not too promising when your starting QB is Marcus Crandell and you have four back ups with little if any CFL experience in Steven Jyles, Teale Orban, Andrew Tate and Darian Durant. Could be an interesting season out in the Prairies!
However, the Green Riders got allot of work done on defense last season, as they allowed the least yards per gain vs. the Rush and that tells you allot about their front four on defense. From a betting perspective, the Roughriders were a bettor’s best friend on the road and it all started in Game #1 vs. the Alouettes in Montreal, as they stunned the Alouettes in their own barn at Molson, Percival Stadium with a 16-7 win as a +3.0 point road underdog. In fact, what impressed me with the Roughriders last season was their consistency, as they never had a losing streak past 3 games and won 70% of their road games. If you ever want to get a gauge on a football team or any team from any sports for that matter, check their road performances.
If there’s one thing to consider when betting on a Saskatchewan Roughriders home game in late September or October, you need to consider the elements, as the wind factor can play a major role on the total. As for the upcoming season, it will be interesting to see how the Roughriders offense will play behind Crandell, as he will need to stay healthy for them to succeed, something he hasn’t done well doing the last few seasons.
Saskatchewan Roughriders 2007 Season Stats
- Straight up Record: 15-6 (SU)
- Against the Spread Record: 11-10-0 (ATS)
- O/U/P: 12 OVERS 9 UNDERS 0 PUSH
Home Record:
- Straight up Record: 8-3 (SU)
- ATS Record: 4-7-0 (ATS)
- O/U/P Record: 8-3-0 (O/U/P)
Road Record:
- Straight up Record: 7-3 (SU)
- ATS Record: 7-3-0 (ATS)
- O/U/P Record: 4-6-0 (O/U/P)
Last 2 Years: 21-19-1 (ATS) 25-16 (SU) 23-18-0 (O/U/P)
Last 3 Years: 31-27-2 (ATS) 34-26 (SU) 29-31-0 (O/U/P)
Last 4 Years: 44-34-2 (ATS) 44-36 (SU) 39-41-0 (O/U/P)
Last 5 Years: 57-40-3 (ATS) 56-44 (SU) 47-52-1 (O/U/P)
Vs. Division Opponents since 1996:
74-61-5 (ATS) 58-81-1 (SU) 72-67-1 (O/U/P)
Value Index
Where exactly is the value when betting on the Saskatchewan Roughriders? I’ve found value betting on the UNDER when the Saskatchewan Roughriders are a Road Underdog, as it’s made me money in this role the last 3 seasons and the UNDER is 17-5-0 for the Roughriders when they’ve been labeled a Road Underdog the last 3 years. Furthermore, because of the wind factor in late September and October, the Roughriders and visiting teams are force to run the ball more and the Roughriders have been successful in this department. In fact, perception would have you believe the UNDER would be the play to consider, but the OVER has been the play to make the last few years; as the OVER is 8-2-0 for the Roughriders as a Home Favorite in September the last 5 seasons. Something to keep in your back pocket for after Labor Day!
Here’s how the Roughriders did in certain betting circumstances since 1996.
Underdog: 83-59-5 (ATS) 46-100-1 (SU) 69-75-2 (O/U/P)
Favorite: 44-46-2 (ATS) 57-35 (SU) 54-37-1 (O/U/P)
Home Dog: 28-17-0 (ATS) 18-26-1 (SU) 27-16-1 (O/U/P)
Home Fave: 28-31-1 (ATS) 37-23 (SU) 37-23-0 (O/U/P)
Road Dog: 50-38-5 (ATS) 23-70 (SU) 36-56-1 (O/U/P)
Road Fave: 11-11-1 (ATS) 15-8 (SU) 11-11-1 (O/U/P)
Saskatchewan Roughriders Head to Head Record vs. Each CFL Team
Talk about not wanting to face non-division teams, as the Roughriders have a horrible record straight up vs. non-division foes. In fact, since 1996, the Montreal Alouettes have owned the Saskatchewan Roughriders, by going 20-5 SU vs. the Prairie Riders. They own a losing record vs. the Argos and good thing they have the Hamilton Tiger Cats to play against twice a year; otherwise it would be a clean sweep for the East. Saskatchewan reminds me a bit of the Toronto Argonauts in some sense, as they are very inconsistent and have trouble putting up back to back winning seasons.
Team by Team Breakdown:
Vs. Montreal: 13-11-1 (ATS) 5-20 (SU) 11-12-1 (O/U/P)
Vs. Hamilton: 17-7-0 (ATS) 14-10 (SU) 15-8-1 (O/U/P)
Vs. Toronto: 12-13-1 (ATS) 12-14 (SU) 12-14-0 (O/U/P)
Vs. Winnipeg: 13-15-2 (ATS) 12-18 (SU) 17-12-1 (O/U/P)
Vs. Edmonton: 19-15-3 (ATS) 16-21 (SU) 21-16-0 (O/U/P)
Vs. Calgary: 19-20-0 (ATS) 14-24-1 (SU) 19-20-0 (O/U/P)
Vs. BC Lions: 24-15-0 (ATS) 19-20 (SU) 18-21-0 (O/U/P)
Look ahead and Letdown Angles
One of the key angles of handicapping football games is the Look ahead and let down factor. Teams tend to overlook their current game when they have a big game on deck, or they tend to have an emotional let down after a high emotion win or game. It’s very hard in football to duplicate a great outing, so this is where most cappers find good value in betting football games.
Here are some betting angles to consider when betting for and/or against the Saskatchewan Roughriders since ‘96.
- The Roughriders are 18-5-1 ATS after playing Montreal and the O/U is 15 overs 7 unders and 2 pushes.
- The Roughriders are 8-16 SU after playing Toronto and 8-15-1 ATS.
- Saskatchewan is 16-7-0 ATS & the OVER is 18-5-0 before playing Hamilton.
- The Roughriders are 15-6-1 ATS before playing the Argonauts since ’96.
Ron's Comment: From what I can gather from the stats above, the Saskatchewan Roughriders really like to get up for games vs. the Eastern Division, as they seem to use their game before hand as a measuring stick and really like to rack up the points. Therefore, consider the OVER in the B.C. Lions game on July 4th, as they have the Tiger Cats on deck. Furthermore, Regina in Saskatchewan is not your typical big metropolitan city like Toronto, New York or Los Angeles, as it’s the prairies and the way of life is pretty laid back, therefore, from the numbers above, it seems the Roughriders like to get ready on the field before heading to the big smoke in Toronto, as they are 15-6-1 ATS before playing Toronto.
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